California’s history of wildfires continues to repeat itself, as Gov. Gavin Newsom pushes for rapid reconstruction in fire-prone areas, including regions devastated by the recent Franklin fire. His efforts, exemplified by a “Marshall Plan” for post-fire recovery, aim to rebuild homes quickly by suspending environmental regulations and addressing building codes. But experts argue that continuing to build in these zones is a predictable risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface, which represents less than 7% of California’s land but houses nearly 45% of new homes. “The biggest thing to note about these fires in LA is that none of this is surprising,” said Erica Fischer, a professor at Oregon State University.

Though efforts to fire-harden homes have grown more stringent since 2008, with state-imposed construction requirements designed to withstand wildfire damage, rebuilding in high-risk zones continues to be a point of contention. “You’re still taking a gamble when you place a new development out in an extraordinarily fire-prone environment,” warned Alexandra Syphard, an ecologist at the Conservation Biology Institute.

The persistent housing crisis complicates these concerns. “You really hate to take areas off the table for building homes,” said Judson Boomhower, an environmental economist. “We know that we don’t build enough homes. At the same time, you want to make sure that you’re building those homes in a way that’s responsible and safe.”

Despite efforts to impose stricter regulations on construction in fire-prone areas, such as bills vetoed by Newsom, the trade-off between housing and fire risk remains unresolved. While some push for building restrictions in these zones, others argue that California’s affordability crisis makes these areas some of the few remaining places to build. However, fire resilience measures alone may not be enough. Fischer emphasized, "If one person gets vaccinated out of the whole town, it’s not really going to make much of a difference."

The insurance market further complicates the issue, with insurers gradually retreating due to the heightened wildfire risk. Victoria Xie, an economist at Santa Clara University, stated, “When insurance companies refuse to cover an area or will only do so at sky-high rates, that’s a strobing, red light that the risk of residing in such a location is very real and very high.”